JAKARTADAILY.ID – The Ministry of National Development Planning (PPN)/Bappenas has revealed its projections for Indonesia's population growth from 2020 to 2045, indicating a significant slowdown in the coming years.
According to the Minister of National Development Planning and Head of Bappenas, Suharso Monoarfa, Indonesia's position as one of the world's most populous countries will shift, dropping to sixth place by 2045 from its previous fourth position in 2020.
"In 2045, Indonesia's position will drop to rank 6 because population growth has slowed since the 2030s," stated Suharso during the 'Indonesia Emas 2045' event at JCC Senayan, Jakarta on Tuesday, May 16, 2023.
The population growth projections for 2020-2045 were developed by Bappenas in collaboration with the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Based on these predictions, Nigeria and Pakistan will occupy the fourth and fifth positions as the most populous countries in the world by 2045.
Suharso explained that three scenarios were used to calculate the population projection. The first scenario was a business-as-usual trend without any policies. "As a result, the total fertility rate continues to fall to 1.9 in 2045, accompanied by an infant mortality rate of 7.85," he stated.
The second scenario, referred to as the moderate scenario, maintained a total fertility target of 2.0 and an infant mortality rate of 5.8. The third scenario, an optimistic one, aimed for a life expectancy of 80 years.
Suharso acknowledged that the figures in the optimistic scenario were comparable to those of developed countries, where the total fertility rate must be maintained at 2.0 and the infant mortality rate should reach 4.2.
Furthermore, Bappenas and BPS observed that population growth from 2020 to 2045 averaged 0.67 percent annually, gradually slowing down each year. The proportion of the population aged 0-14 years decreased from 24.56 percent in 2020 to 19.61 percent in 2045, while the population aged 65 years and over increased from 6.16 percent to 14.61 percent in 2045.
"The population structure is currently undergoing very rapid changes. In 2023, India will become the country with the highest population, replacing China. China is also expected to have experienced negative population growth since 2021," Suharso remarked.